About the Author
W.B. Busin
It is a wonderful life. Blessed to be in America.
Loves- God, family, research, markets and business.
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Elite Trader's Journal
IMVHMO** - Market Timing for 10/03/2005 –
Stay short the market indexes till at least October 7th till about 12:30 EDT, then the bounce starts, though short-lived. More later, as we get closer. (Please read the previous post for the October 7th low and the October 24th low.)
Stock Market Opinions Are Just Facts Viewed Through A Biased Lens
Most people have an opinion about the vast markets in America and the rest of the world. I usually have two opinions.
My primary opinion is more frequently right than wrong. But my secondary opinion is always based on my primary opinion being exactly wrong. They will kind of sound like this, “If the market declines, it should reach ‘such and such’ price by ‘such and such’ date.”
So, you’re saying to yourself, “How nice for you! But what about me? I’m the person reading your banter. Where are you coming from and what gives you any credibility at all?”
Credibility? I have only as much credibility as the correctness of my last trade or stated opinion, and, that’s about all anyone can ask for from anyone. Market views and opinions are like the call of a flipped coin while it’s still in the air. You’ll know whether it’s the right call when it lands and settles. Like the old expression, “What have you done for me today?”, markets require of us the ability to recognize immediately, or as soon as possible, that we are right or we are wrong. Recognition is not enough. You must immediately take action if you are wrong. That action usually involves something like “Get me out! Now!”
Doubt and You
If you really did think something like, “Who are you and why should I give credence to anything you say?” … well, you are certainly on your way to becoming a better investor or trader. Skepticism about market pronouncements or predictions or investment systems is absolutely your most important weapon to combat the bane of all market participants- “Doubt!” But some doubt can be healthy. Doubt can be overcome by facts and reason. Never get rid of doubt if it’s about the right things. Doubt is healthy when looking for evidence about a potential investment or trade. Wait! Make that anything related to the markets … anything! Include in that doubt even the most common things you might take for granted, like the graphic on TV of the market indexes’ closing prices (people in TV studios do make mistakes), or even what you might see in the financial section of your newspaper. Double-check everything you have time to check.
Skepticism and doubt are double-edged swords though. Doubting yourself is deadly. In large quantities, it will eat your heart out. It will paralyze you and/or cause you to make the exact wrong decision at the exact wrong time. So, keeping control over doubt and skepticism will make for a more pleasant market experience.
Use your skepticism here and everywhere to discern what is best for you. You are the only person who knows or can know what is best for you at any given time. Not even a spouse or best friend can actually define that.
Most Important Lesson
So, the biggest lesson I have ever learned about playing this wonderful market game is that you must think for yourself, with a healthy dose of skepticism about what you see, hear, read and feel about the markets. Do your own investigation, research and analysis. Do your homework.
Early on, the more homework you do, the better you will get at it. The better you get, the less homework you will need to do. After a time, you will find yourself seriously delving into why you were wrong about something. Make your own investing and trading decisions (whether it’s about a broker, a stock or company, a market related book … anything).
Be accountable to your own rationale for doing something. The number of rights versus wrongs has little relevance to whether you are profitable in your next market adventure. It’s what you do when you are right and when you are wrong that really matters. Remember the coin toss? Just do your own homework … and don’t fear being wrong. The wrong decision is usually telling you what the right decision was. Take time to study the 'why' for both and then make small adjustments. More on this subject in the future.
See you Tuesday.
Always be a blessing to others. WBB
** - “IMVHMO”, will always describe directly whatever I write here in this wonderful forum. It is a slightly altered but common Internet acronym or shortcut. Here it means “In My Very Humble Market Opinion”.
Published by W.B. Busin on October 3, 2005 08:03 AM
